Shalva Papuashvili: What would have happened if the “yogurt revolution” had succeeded and the war was met by those so-called “sincere citizens” in power? We would have spiraled into escalation ending in war

“What would have happened if the plan for the ‘Yogurt Revolution’ had succeeded, and this war had been met by those so-called ‘sincere citizens’ in power? They would have entered a spiral of escalation, at the end of which war is guaranteed,” said the Speaker of the Parliament of Georgia, Shalva Papuashvili, during his presentation of the 10th Parliament’s annual report, when speaking on the topic of opening a “second front.”

According to Papuashvili, the calls being made at the time were aimed at triggering developments in Georgia that would ultimately lead to military adventurism and the opening of a second front.

“Isn’t it unbelievable to hear those messages today? Didn’t our opponents also refuse to believe it when the Prime Minister of Georgia and the honorary chairman of Georgian Dream were recounting the same stories about pressure on the Georgian government? These calls were clearly directed toward provoking developments in Georgia that would lead to military adventurism and opening a second front. It didn’t happen in Georgia – and that’s why they labeled the plan as fabricated. But wait – wasn’t a second front opened in the Russia-Ukraine war?”

He continued:

“Let’s recall the Kursk operation, when Ukraine captured part of the Russian Federation’s territory specifically to force Russia to redirect troops from the main front, easing military pressure. Let’s consider the scale: 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 60,000 Russian soldiers. Now recall the figures from the 2008 war. The scale matches almost one-to-one. This Kursk was supposed to happen in Georgia, which would have been a far better testing ground in political terms—another victim state, more grieving mothers and crying children. This would have been used as added pressure on countries hesitant to provide military aid.”

“Now let’s think – what would have happened if the ‘Yogurt Revolution’ plan had succeeded, and those so-called ‘sincere citizens’ who, while draped in Ukrainian flags, demanded sending fighters from Rustaveli Avenue, closing the skies, and imposing sanctions, had come to power? They would have entered a spiral of escalation that inevitably leads to war. Kursk would have happened here. There would have been a second front in Georgia.”

“This scenario was averted, and it was the 10th convocation of Parliament that stood at the forefront of these political defense efforts,” Papuashvili said.

He also claimed that two days before the 2021 local elections, Ukraine’s military intelligence smuggled Mikheil Saakashvili into Georgia in a dairy container, with a pre-prepared revolutionary plan to be launched immediately upon the announcement of election results.

According to Papuashvili, all objective polls showed that Georgian Dream had no problem with public legitimacy or support and was poised to win the local elections convincingly. Therefore, a new revolutionary plan was quickly activated.

“In his address, Papuashvili said the Georgian state suffered a blow planned and executed by foreign intelligence services in cooperation with domestic collaborators.

‘Two days before the elections, Ukraine’s military intelligence smuggled Mikheil Saakashvili into Georgia in a dairy container. A revolutionary plan was prepared for him to be launched immediately after the announcement of election results. Chronologically, it should also be noted that two days before entering Georgia with the help of foreign intelligence services, Saakashvili was in Brussels holding meetings. This revolution attempt also failed. The security services of the state arrested Saakashvili on the eve of the elections,’ said Papuashvili.

‘The “Moor” failed to accomplish his mission, but he still proved useful. The defeated opposition launched a new wave of hysteria, claiming that Saakashvili was facing death due to a hunger strike. Letters were written, rallies held, and foreign ambassadors, with false demarches and fatalistic questions like “What if he dies?” tried to blackmail the government. His handlers—Baltic MEPs—organized debates, adopted resolutions, and twisted every possible diplomatic tool to pressure the government to release Saakashvili from his lawful sentence and make way for the planned revolution. This attempt also failed. Saakashvili miraculously recovered from dementia diagnosed by oath-breaking doctors and continues to serve his lawful sentence peacefully,’ he said.

Papuashvili emphasized that both the Georgian public and government fully understood what the Russia-Ukraine war meant for Georgia.

According to him, the high risks, cautious policymaking, and prioritization of national interests once again made Georgian Dream a target for its opponents.

‘Why was Saakashvili’s figure so important? Why was it necessary to use him to change the government? What role was the protest and revolution around the local elections supposed to play in a larger regional picture? Was this merely a desperate revanchist attempt by the United National Movement, or something more? The answer became clear three months after Saakashvili’s failed revolution. On February 24, 2022, Europe saw the largest and bloodiest war since World War II. The Russian Federation invaded Ukraine. International relations, security systems, defense architecture—everything changed overnight. The West and Russia found themselves in a protracted war.’

‘The Georgian people and we all understood what this war meant for Georgia. The scale of the war could easily have reached us, and Russian tanks could have once again driven down familiar roads. The high risk, cautious politics, and putting national interests first once again made Georgian Dream a target. From the very first days of Russian aggression, the Georgian government expressed a clear stance, declared solidarity with Ukraine, engaged in humanitarian assistance, participated in the Ramstein format, left its diplomatic mission active in Kyiv, condemned the war, and stood on the side of peace,’ Papuashvili said.

He concluded by noting that the government immediately came under fire for destruction and sabotage.

‘We faced another wave of radical opposition protests demanding the dispatch of volunteers to Ukraine, bilateral sanctions on Russia, closing the skies, visa regimes—full, unconditional escalation.

We resisted the jointly crafted and shared action plan that our so-called “well-wishers” were pushing through various channels. In private meetings, these messages were even more direct, open, and unambiguous. Diplomats were made to say them, visiting envoys repeated them, externally guided parties and foreign-interest NGOs echoed them—“use the window of opportunity,” “if there’s a war, fight,” “stand on the right side of history,” “better to burn under bombs than with shame,” “so what if war starts—Russia won’t fully control you.” The messengers changed, but the message remained the same—as if copied from a single manual: a second front must open in Georgia,’ Papuashvili declared.

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